Political tension has increased thereafter the opposition parties brought a no-confidence motion against the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan. Now many allies sitting in power are also leaving Imran Khan's side.
Imran Khan organized a historic meeting of the ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party on 27 March. In this, he tried to show his strong face.
At the rally, he alleged that "an attempt is being made to topple the government in Pakistan with the help of foreign funds." However, the opposition rejected Imran Khan's statement outright.
Now all the attention has shifted to the National Assembly, the lower house of Pakistan, whose agenda is a no-confidence motion against Imran Khan's government. This motion was introduced on 28 March. It is expected that this proposal will be voted on by the end of this week.
Meanwhile, Indian experts believe that whatever the outcome of the no-confidence motion against the Khan government, India's relations with Pakistan will remain tense.
Due to domestic reasons, neither New Delhi nor Islamabad's policy is likely to see a major change.
fast-changing events of Pakistan
This session of the National Assembly of Pakistan began on 28 March. And then the already awaited no-confidence motion was introduced against Imran Khan's government.
Leader of the Opposition Shahbaz Sharif requested to introduce this resolution. In favor of this, 161 MPs of the lower house got votes. After that, the Deputy Speaker of the House Qasim Khan Suri announced that the debate on this motion would start on March 31.
According to the Constitution of Pakistan, once a no-confidence motion is moved, it must be presented in the National Assembly within 14 days. However, the Speaker of the National Assembly failed to move this resolution within the stipulated time frame. After that, despite the criticism, it was decided to postpone the meeting till 31 March.
According to Pakistani media reports, after this proposal is introduced, the government will take a 'maximum' ie seven days for voting.
After the motion was introduced, the Jamhoori Watan Party decided to leave the ruling coalition. After that, the number of members of the ruling coalition was reduced to 178 out of the total 342 members of the lower house of Parliament.
According to Pakistan's leading newspaper Dawn, the opposition parties Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan People's Party (PPP) now have the support of 163 MPs.
Imran Khan's government needs the support of at least 172 MPs to remain in power. At the same time, the opposition also needs 172 MPs to bring down the government by passing a no-confidence motion.
'India needs more continuity than change'
Many Indian experts believe that regardless of which party's government is in Pakistan, as long as the Pakistani military intervenes, Islamabad's relations with Delhi are more likely to remain strained.
Dr. Ashok Behuria, the Senior Fellow of India's well-known think-tank Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis (IDSA), has termed Pakistan's political scenario as a 'game of musical chairs and said that there is hardly any change in the current situation for India. Will happen.
He said that if the opposition PML-N and PPP came to power, in the compulsion to "make the army happy", he would have to take a more harsh stance towards India, so there is little chance of his stance towards Delhi softening.
However, Pakistan's political expert Sushant Sarin believes that as long as Imran Khan remains in power, there is no possibility of normal and civilized talks between India and Pakistan. He says that if Imran Khan is removed from power, the relationship between the two countries will depend on many factors.
Sushant Sarin told the BBC, "If Imran Khan is removed, then what can happen is that there will be a complete resumption of diplomatic relations between the two countries, some activity on talks at the level of 'track two' will start. Let us gradually reopen the business. However, there is no possibility of any fundamental change in the relationship between the two.
Nidhi Razdan, the anchor of the famous news channel NDTV, said in her prime-time show on March 28 that many things are working against Imran Khan in Pakistan. In this show, he also discussed how Imran Khan is no longer the 'darling' of the Pakistani army.
He further said, "India will be closely watching the current developments in Pakistan. Relations with Imran Khan have become cold. The army fires on India anyway and will always do so. What is going to happen next will lead to anarchy in Pakistan. Will be caught in a maze of instability and uncertainty.
Military affairs expert Air Marshal (Retd) VK Verma said that since the formation of Pakistan, its army has remained the 'backbone' of the country. He said that a change of government in Pakistan will change neither for its people nor for India.
At the same time, Prateek Joshi, who did the research, says that there is a 'silent agreement' between the parties and the army of Pakistan that the army will take the final decision on matters related to India. Therefore, according to him, not much can be expected from parties except to speak on issues related to Kashmir or trade.
He said that Pakistan wants to make better deals with Russia and America by resorting to the Ukraine crisis, as both want to form their faction.
Why did Imran Khan praise India?
Amidst the ongoing political turmoil in Islamabad, Imran Khan recently praised India's "free foreign policy" regarding the Ukraine crisis.
On March 20, he said, "India is buying oil from Russia despite global sanctions because their policy is for the public good."
However, many people in Pakistan criticized their PM for praising India. Pakistani journalist Kamran Shahid wrote on Twitter on March 21 that Imran Khan is the 'darling of India's media'.
His statement about India is different from his current foreign policy, which has focused mainly on the Kashmir issue. His government had decided not to hold any talks with India regarding Kashmir.
Analyst Dr. Ashok Behuria said about this, "India wants to talk on many issues, but Pakistan's focus has been only on Kashmir. Pakistan has played the role of game spoiler in this matter."
Imran Khan has been a vocal critic of the government of India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He has often been targeting the PM and government of India on Twitter.
Imran Khan had said in a tweet on January 10 this year, "Under the extremist ideology of BJP and Modi government, all religious minorities of India have been targeted by Hindutva organizations. The extremist agenda of the Modi government is really for peace in our region." And there is an existing danger."
Some media outlets in India also said that Imran Khan 'suddenly praised' India because 'the Pakistani army is removing him from power.
Times Now, a news channel from India, published a report on its website on 25 March. It said, "Imran Khan is targeting the Pakistan Army, which is in a mood to dump him in this hour of crisis."
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