It was being said that the recent elections in five states are semifinals and the final match in the general election of 2024.
So has the Bharatiya Janata Party ensured its victory in the finals by winning four out of five states?
After this victory on 10 March 2022, Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a speech to party workers at the BJP headquarters in Delhi the same evening said, "After the 2019 election results, some political experts had said that brother, what is in the victory of 2019? Yes, it was decided in 2017 itself. Because the result of UP came in 2017. I believe this time also these wise men will surely dare to say that the results of 2022 have decided the results of 2024.
In the view of Surya Prakash, former president of Prasar Bharati and supporter of Modi, the effect of these latest election results will be seen in 2024. According to him, there are full chances of BJP's victory.
He says, "As of today, I certainly do not see any problem for the BJP in the 2024 elections. The pro-Modi sentiment across the country is very strong. In terms of delivery of government schemes and dissemination of ideas. His record is quite remarkable. If things remain stable, I don't see any problem for the BJP in 2024."
He said that people still vote in the name of Modi and it is difficult to stop it further.
"There is no doubt that winning a state like Uttar Pradesh is no joke. While this is a positive sign for Yogi Adityanath, it is also a widespread sign for PM Modi in other states," he told BBC.
According to political analyst Seema Chishti, the latest election results show that at present the atmosphere is in favor of Hindutva. According to him, it shows the mentality of the voters more than the defeat of the opposition. She says, "The voter is not voting in his interest, he needs something else". They feel that if the situation continues like this, then in the general elections of 2024, Hindutva will vote only.
"If I am BJP, then I will understand that Hindutva has got votes completely. Not only about the Hindi belt. These elections have been held in different states."
Difficult to stop Modi
Almost all analysts now accept that stopping Narendra Modi is currently beyond the control of the opposition. The Prime Minister is 70 years old and in good health. His supporters say that he does not take leave, only keeps working. Modi will be the captain of BJP in the final match of 2024 and analysts believe that even if the opposition unites, it is difficult to defeat them.
Analysts have been talking about the end of Congress for the last eight years. After the recent defeat, this thing has started rising once again.
But in the last eight years, if Congress has lost in many states, then it has also won in many other states. In the year 2018, when the party won in Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Karnataka, it seemed that the party was reviving. But, the party has lost elections twice at the national level.
Seema Chishti says, "The Congress has lost badly. Punjab has also lost badly, due to which the country has become a one-party system".
How will the 2024 election be
So won't the 2024 Lok Sabha election be BJP vs Congress? Will it be an election of BJP vs regional parties?
Haryana Chief Minister and BJP leader Manohar Lal Khattar said on Thursday that there are still only two parties in the country, BJP, and Congress. He says, "Even today BJP and Congress are present in most areas of the country. But people's interest in the ideology of Congress is decreasing."
In Maharashtra, Congress state president Nana Patole is hopeful that his party will remain strong in the 2024 elections. "The Congress central leadership is still strong, which will help us put up a tough fight in the 2024 elections," he says.
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According to Seema Chishti, whether Congress will be able to show its strength against the BJP in 2024 will depend on how Congress will perform in the upcoming state elections.
She says, "It will depend on what kind of results come out in the coming state elections. Our assessment keeps on changing. Now look after the Bengal elections, the pace was different. So if the Congress is mobilizing Strongly performs at the state level (in Karnataka and Gujarat elections), if the Congress figures out how people react, then there is hope. It will have to Select its way back."
Surya Prakash says that the final match in the 2024 election will be between BJP vs regional parties.
He said, "The first thing we have to keep in mind is that the BJP has remained the number one party of India for the last few years. It will compete with a bunch of regional parties. After these elections, take a look at the political map of India today. So it will be known that regional parties are in power in many states. Wherever Congress is in power, like in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, BJP is the main opposition and they come to power alternately.
"The second situation is in a state like Odisha, where a local party (BJD) has destroyed the Congress. Biju Janata Dal has defeated Congress. Now BJP is the main rival of BJD. In Telangana, which was a Congress state, the ruling party overtook the Congress in the elections and the BJP has now become the main rival of the regional party. Something similar happened in West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh as well.
He says, "Now the Aam Aadmi Party has done a clean sweep in Punjab at the expense of the Congress. Now it will be difficult for Congress to come back to power again. You look at Delhi, where the Aam Aadmi Party has defeated the Congress in the assembly for two consecutive terms.
Aam Aadmi Party a new option at the national level?
Aam Aadmi Party's spirits are high after a massive victory in Punjab. It has also opened its account in Goa with two seats. It is clear that now this party is not limited to Delhi. So will it now emerge as a national-level party and will it become a challenge for BJP?
Surya Prakash says, “These are early days. You have seen a plant, will see it grow ahead”. They say that the Aam Aadmi Party is currently a challenge for the BJP only in Delhi and Punjab, and not at the national level.
According to Seema Chisti, Aam Aadmi Party can become a national-level party. She says, "The RSS will also have no problem with this. It (Aam Aadmi Party) is seen close to it and does not oppose the BJP. I think you are committed to Hindutva."
Perhaps in 2024, the Aam Aadmi Party may not be able to challenge the BJP at the national level. Analysts say that if many opposition leaders whose parties are in power in many states come together to form a third front, then the final contest can be interesting.
Leaders of the opposition of high statures like Mamata Banerjee, Chandrashekhar Rao, and Sharad Pawar are talking about such a front but at the moment it has not been made.
The general elections are after two years. Two years is a long time in politics. Things can change in two years. But in the current situation, defeating Prime Minister Modi seems almost impossible.
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